Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult & Ken Kasriel

Unit I Overview

Unit I.A.1: How Windy is Windy?

Unit I.A.2: Introduction to Wind Speed Distributions

Unit I.A.3: Windy Offshore Places

Unit I.A.4: All You Need Is Wind Resource - Or Is It..?

Unit I.A.5: Generation Capacity vs Generation

Unit I.A. 6: What's Big for an Offshore Wind Farm?

Unit I.A.7: Trends in Offshore Wind Farm Scale

Unit I.B.1: Iceland as a Windy Kuwait? When Interconnectors Do and Don't Make Sense

Unit I.B.2: Transmission Costs and Distance: a UK Example

Unit I.B.3: Onshore Transmission Charging

Unit I.B.4: Getting Power Not Only Where, But When It's Needed

Unit I.B.5: Electricity - Balancing Supply and Demand

Unit I.B.6: When a Grid Wobbles

Unit I.B.7: Conducting the Electric (Light) Orchestra

Unit I.B.8: Introduction to Utility-Scale Power Storage

Unit I.B.9: A Peek at Future Storage Costs

Unit I.C.1: Back to the Present - Avoid Long Distance Transmission Where Possible

Unit I.C: 2 - Farewell Iceland, Hello California

Unit I.C.3: Water Depth and Offshore Wind Deployment

Unit I.C.4: Floating Offshore Wind - Current Status

Unit I.C.5: Floating Wind - Towards Commercialisation

Unit I.C.6: Floating Wind Deployment and Cost Reduction (1/2)

Unit I.C.7: Floating Wind Deployment and Cost Reduction (2/2)

Unit I.C.8: Offshore Wind Manufacture and Infrastructure

Unit I.D.1: Transmission - Distance and Power Losses

Unit I.D.2: Transmission - Offshore and Onshore Substations

Unit I.D.3: Transmission - Introduction to HVDC

Unit I.D.4: Transmission - HVAC vs HVDC

Unit I.D.5: Transmission - "Typical" Distances From Land

Unit I.D: 6 - Transmission - Pushing the Distance Boundaries

Unit I.D.7: Transmission - Cables and Converters

Unit I.D.8: Transmission - Project Scale and Distance

Unit I.D.9: Distance From Shore - O and M Costs

Unit I.D.10: Distance From Shore - O and M Costs - Vessel Strategies

Unit I.E.1: Adding More Rigour to Our So-far Fruitless Treasure Hunt

Unit I.E.2: Oddballs: Inter-tidal Sites

Unit I.E.3: A Matter of Scale

Unit I.E.4: A Sense of Depth

Unit I.E.5: Can We See Both Water Depth and Mean Wind Speed?

Unit I.E.6: Testing Our Refined Lens: Australia

Unit I.E.7: Onwards!

Unit I.E.8: Download the Course Custom Mean Wind Speed / Water Depth Map

Unit I.F.1: East Asia Focus - Introduction

Unit I.F.2: China Focus - Introduction

Unit I.F.3: China Focus - Shanghai and South Coast

Unit I.F.4: China Focus - Fuzhou Area

Unit I.F.5: Taiwan Focus - Introduction

Unit I.F.6: Taiwan Focus - Offshore Wind Areas of Potential

Unit I.F.7: Taiwan Focus - A Mix of Bottom-Fixed and Floating Wind

Unit I.F.8: Taiwan Focus - Permitting and Air Traffic Radar Issues

Unit I.F.9: (Tangent: Military Exclusion Zones)

Unit I.F.10: (Exclusion Zones (exercise))

Unit I.F.11: South Korea Focus

Unit I.F.12: Japan Focus - Introduction

Unit I.F.13: Japan Focus - Mixed Strategy

Unit I.F.14: Japan Focus - South Coast

Unit I.F.15: Japan Focus - Population and Grid

Unit I.G.1: UK & Ireland - UK Raw Wind Resource

Unit I.G.2: UK & Ireland - UK Offshore Wind Hot Spots

Unit I.G.3 :UK & Ireland - Scotwind 2022 Results: a Big Shout Out for Floating Wind Globally

Unit I.G.4: UK & Ireland - Ireland

Unit I.H.1: Other Interesting Windy Places

Unit I. Appendix.1: Experience Curve - Introduction

Unit I. Appendix.2: Experience Curve - Progressing Along a Log Scale is Easy, Until it Isn't

Unit I. Appendix.3: Wandering off the Curve

Unit I. Appendix.4: Experience Curve and Market Pricing

Unit I. Appendix.5: Separating the Experience Curve From Market Impacts - Introduction

Unit I. Appendix.6: Separating the Experience Curve From Market Impacts - Visualisation

Unit I. Appendix.7: Separating the Experience Curve From Market Impacts - Importance

Unit I. Appendix.8: Pure vs fully-loaded experience curves

Unit I. Appendix.9: Experience Curves and Storage Technology

Unit I. Appendix.10: Experience Curves With Supply and Demand

Unit I. Appendix.11: Experience Curves and Wider Renewables and Storage Markets

Unit I. Appendix.12: Quiz - Experience Curves

Unit I: Further Resources

Unit II Overview; Handy Excel Auditing Macros; The CHOOSE Function

Unit II.A.1: Resource Estimation Overview; Intro to Simulation

Unit II.A.2: Program the Behaviour You Want to Model

Unit II.A.3: Simulate Many Times, Summarise and Check

Unit II.A.4: Easy First Example: Virtual Coin Toss

Unit II.A.4a: Download

Unit II.A.5: Understanding Excel's RAND Function

Unit II.A.6: Getting RAND to Understand Us

Unit II.A.7: Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel with Data Tables

Unit II.A.8: How do we Know this Thing Works?

Unit II.A.9: Programming a Fair Die

Unit II.A.10: Preliminary sense check of our programming

Unit II.A.11: Scaling up the Simulation -- Painless

Unit II.A.12: Scaling up to … how Many Trials?

Unit II.A.13: Scaling up to call B.S.

Unit II.A.14: Download the Dice Simulator

Unit II.A.15: Let's Model the Wind Already

Unit II.B.1: Simulating Annual Wind Speeds in Excel

Unit II.B.2: Introducing the Weibull distribution calculation

Unit II.B.3: Using the Mean Wind Speed to Unlock the Weibull

Unit II.B.4: The Weibull Function Cell which Feeds the Simulator

Unit II.B.5: Excel Mechanics - the Simulator Which Feeds the Histogram

Unit II.B.6: the Histogram Which Feeds the Chart

Unit II.B.7: Side Note - the Number of Days per Average Year

Unit II.B.8: Scaling the Chart Data to One Year

Unit II.B.9: Testing the Model with a Key Check Cell

Unit II.B.10: Recap; Exercises (Simulation Coding, Real World Data Gathering; Adjusting Wind Speed for Height)

Unit II.B.11: Exercise Files

Unit II.C.1: Download the Wind Simulation Model Covered in These Lectures (+ Unsolved Exercises)

Unit II.C.2: Introducing Turbine Power Curves

Unit II.C.3: Basic Terminology and Units

Unit II.C.4: Key Power Curve Junctures - Outline of Gross AEP Formula

Unit II.C.5: Example Calculation: One Point on the Curve

Unit II.C.6: the Pocket of Wind Which Matters to Us

Unit II.C.7: From Here, a Short Step to Gross Single-Turbine AEP

Unit II.C.8: Visualising Gross Single-Turbine AEP

Unit II.C.9: Capacity Factor Calculation

Unit II.D.1: Exercise: Gross AEP for One Turbine, Many Different Wind Profiles

Unit II.D.2: Exercise: Pick the Best Turbines for our Case Study Model

Unit II.D.3: Turbine Selection Exercise - Example Walkthrough

Unit II.D.4: Download Solved Versions of Exercises Here

Unit II.E.1: Methodology Limitations and Workarounds - Introduction

Unit II.E.2: How we are and aren't using Monte Carlo Simulation

Unit II.E.3: Annual Wind Speed Variability

Unit II.E.4: A Real World Refinement - Measure-Correlate-Predict

Unit II.E.5: Accounting for Annual Variability - Inter-quartile Ranges

Unit II.E.6: Seasonal Wind Speed Variability - Monthly Basis Adjustment

Unit II.E.7: Pricing Variability

Unit II.E.8: Public Wind Atlas Data are Very Useful Estimates, but No Substitute for Measured Site Data

Unit II.F.1: Introduction

Unit II.F.2: Blade Tip Speeds and Generation Cut-out Speeds

Unit II.F.3: How Wind Turbines Slow Themselves Down

Unit II.F.4: Bin Sizes in Gross AEP Calculation - Bigger Isn't Better

Unit II.F.5: Bin Sizes, Continued

Unit II.F.6: Why Turbine Power Curves Look as They Do - Introduction

Unit II.F.7: Getting Electricity From Wind

Unit II.F.8: Introducing the Coefficient of Power (Cp)

Unit II.F.9: the Betz Limit

Unit II.F.10: Why is There a Limit at All?

Unit II.F.11: How Turbine Generation Capacity Limits and Rated Wind Speeds Tie Together

Unit II.F.12: Introducing the Wind Power to Electricity Equation

Unit II.F.13: A) a Curve-Defining Exponent; B) Air Density

Unit II.F.14: Blade Length and Generation

Unit II.F.15: The Coefficient of Power, Revisited

Unit II.F.16: Behind the Curve's Smooth Plateau - a Lot of Backstage Melodrama

Unit II.F.17: Cp: Idealised Versus Real World

Unit II.F18: Intuition Check - How Cp Helps Shape the Power Curve

Unit II.F.19: Don't Confuse The Coefficient of Power ("Cp") with the Capacity Factor ("CF")

Unit II.F.20: Download the Exercise Files - Misusing the Mean Wind Speed; Recreating the IEA's test turbine

Unit II: Space for Potential Future Resources

Unit III Overview

Unit III.A.1: Download the Pretax Mini-Model (with Exercise I)

Unit III.A.2: What We'll do Here - Timing Calculations

Unit III.A.3: What We'll do Here - Monetary Calculations (Inflation, Discounting)

Unit III.A.4: What We'll do Here - Analysing Results

Unit III.B.1: Time-shifting - Identifying the First Costs in the Queue

Unit III.B.2: A Dynamic Pre-Generation Cost Schedule (HLOOKUP Function)

Unit III.B.3: Generation Start Year

Unit III.B.4: Generation End Year

Unit III.B.5: Timing Flags - Generation, Tariff Periods

Unit III.B.6: Quick Tangent - Using Checksums

Unit III.B.7: Decommissioning Flag

Unit III.B.8: Quick Tangent - Excel's Evaluate Formula Feature

Unit III.C.1: Net Cashflows (NCFs) at Last! First step: "Real " (Constant Currency) NCFs

III.C.2: Nominal NCFs

Unit III.C.3: Net Present Value (NPV) from Nominal NCFs - Quick and Dirty with Excel's NPV Function

Unit III.C.4: A first encounter with Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

Unit III.C.5: Maximum Exposure and Breakeven; Pivoting Away from the NPV Function

Unit III.C.6: NPV, the Longform Way

Unit III.D.1: Recap - the Road so Far

Unit III.D.2: A Metaphor for Discounting, Rhymes with Sorrow

Unit III.D.3: The Sense Behind the Formula - Reverse Engineering the Discount Factor

Unit III.D.4: More Reverse Engineering; Discount Rate as Opportunity Cost of Capital

Unit III.D.5: Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Unit III.D.6: Discounting Periods

Unit III.D.7: Why We Use Mid-Period Discounting (and Inflation)

Unit III.D.8: When This is Less of a Big Deal

Unit III.D.9: Discounting hits Different Cashflows Differently

Unit III.D.10: Watching NPV "Flip"

Unit III.D.11: Why'd that Change That Way? Variance Analysis

Unit III.D.12: While Modelling, Make Undiscounted NCF Your "Coal Mine Canary" Cell to Watch, Not NPV

Unit III.D.13: Exercises - Coding Practice; Discounting "Weirdness"

Unit III.E.1: Introduction - Basic Project Income Tax

Unit III.E.2: Download this Unit's Mini-Model, and some exercises

Unit III.E.3: Throat-clearing

Unit III.E.4: Income Tax Deductions (3 Different Kinds)

Unit III.E.5: Make Losses Untaxable

Unit III.E.6: Send any Untaxable Losses "Up and to the Right"

Unit III.E.7: Tax Losses From Prior Periods, Vs. Tax Losses from Operations

Unit III.E.8: Tying off Loss Carry-forwards, Introducing the Other Tax Allowances

Unit III.E:9: Expensable Allowances vs. Depreciable Allowances

Unit III.E.10: Depreciation: Mechanism and Overview of Remaining Steps

Unit III.E.11: Determining when Things Become Depreciable

Unit III.E.12: Depreciability Timing - Coding

Unit III.E.13: Core Depreciation Calculation

Unit III.E:14: Terminal Year Adjustment, to Tie Things off With a Knot

Unit III.E:15: Tax Calculation - Recap

Unit III.E.16: Closing Remarks, Exercise

Unit III.E.17: There's a Bit More to Tax, of Course

Unit III: Space for Potential Future Resources

Unit IV overview

Unit IV.A.1: Basic Parameters

Unit IV.A.2: Visual Impact Issue

Unit IV.A.3: Legal Challenges to Our Project

Unit IV.A.4: Options Facing Our Developer

Unit IV.A.5: Physical Site Parameters

Unit IV.A.6: Developer Turbine Options

Unit IV.A.7: Refresher on Project Options to be Analysed

Unit IV.A.8: Options 1 and 2 (Fight the Legal Challenge)

Unit IV.A.9: The Remaining Options

Unit IV.A.10: Got all That? A Quick Recap

Unit IV.A.11: Note on Turbine Ratings Used in The Case Study (No Audio)

Unit IV.A.12: Quiz - Case Study Overview

Unit IV.B.1: Before We Jump In: Guide to an Offshore Wind Farm (Website/Downloadable PDF)

Unit IV.B.2: Bird's Eye View of Site Parameters

Unit IV.B.3: Cost and Performance Impact of Different Wind Speeds

Unit IV.B.4: Cost Impact of Different Water Depths

Unit IV.B.5: Relevant "Distances From Shore"

Unit IV.B.6: Cost Impact of Different Distances From Shore

Unit IV.B.7: Cost Impact of Different Wave Conditions

Unit IV.B.8: Cost Impact of Different Seabed Conditions

Unit IV.B.9: Seabed Installation Terminology: Reminders/Explainers (1/2)

Unit IV.B.10: Seabed Installation Terminology: Reminders/Explainers (2/2)

Unit IV.B.11: Site Parameters Summary

Unit IV.B.12: Design Life

Unit IV.B.13: Repowering and Design Life Questions

Unit IV.B.14: Quiz - Case Study Assumptions

Unit IV.C.1: Introduction to Development Expenditure (Devex)

Unit IV.C.2: Development Risk and Environmental Surveys

Unit IV.C.3: Environmental Protection and Standards

Unit IV.C.4: Devex Costs

Unit IV.D.1: Offshore Wind Turbine Costs Overview

Unit IV.D.2: Transition Pieces

Unit IV.D.3: Structural Notes

Unit IV.D.4: Turbine Supply - Wrap-Up

Unit IV.D.5: Note re Turbine Size and Economies of Scale

Unit IV.D.6: Turbine Installation Costs

Unit IV.D.7: Turbine Installation Footage

Unit IV.E.1: Offshore Wind Foundations - Introduction

Unit IV.E.2: Foundations Cost Variances

Unit IV.E.3: Monopile Fabrication and Installation

Unit IV.E.4: Monopiles - a Sense of Scale

Unit IV.E.5: Different Offshore Wind Foundation Types Compared

Unit IV.E.6: Monopile and Jacket Foundation Supply Costs - 10 MW Turbines

Unit IV.E.7: Monopile and Jacket Foundation Installation Costs - 10 MW turbines

Unit IV.E.8: Monopile and Jacket Cost Comparison - 6MW Turbines

Unit IV.E.9: Comparing the Mass of Monopiles and Jackets

Unit IV.E.10: Jacket Fabrication

Unit IV.E.11: Case Study Foundation Cost Assumptions

Unit IV.F.1: Array Cables and Transmission (1/2)

Unit IV.F.2: Array Cables and Transmission (2/2)

Unit IV.F.3: Other Capex

Unit IV.F.4: Capex Wrap-Up

Unit IV.G.1: Operations & Maintenance (O&M) Costs Overview

Unit IV.G.2: Other Operating Costs

Unit IV.G.3: Decommissioning Overview

Unit IV.G.4: Decommissioning and Scrap Value

Unit IV.G.5: Decommissioning, Recycling and Responsible Disposal of Components

Unit IV.G.6: Cost Assumptions Wrap-Up

Unit IV.G.7: Quiz - Case Study Costs

Unit IV.H.1: Transmission Assets - Refresher

Unit IV.H.2: Transmission Assets (2)

Unit IV.H.3: HVAC or HVDC - That Is The Question

Unit IV.H.4: International inter-connections (1)

Unit IV.H.5: International inter-connections (2)

Unit IV.H.6: Enablers for Inter-connection

Unit IV.H.7: Quiz - Transmission Focus

Unit IV: Space for Potential Future Resources

Unit V Overview: Multi-option Case Study Model: Full Model and Analysis

Unit V.A.1: Download the Case Study Model

Unit V.B.1: Feed-in Tariffs vs Market pricing; Thoughts on Forecasts

Unit V.B.2: Merit Order Pricing

Unit V.B.3: Adding Wind to the Mix: Good times, Bad times

Unit V.B.4: Our Model's Tariff Regimes

Unit V.C.1: Losses Overview; Wake Losses

Unit V.C.2: Reducing Wake Losses: Layout Optimisation; Total Wind Farm Control

Unit V.C.3: Downtime

Unit V.C.4: Other (pre-Erosion) Losses

Unit V.C.5: Losses from Blade Erosion

Unit V.C.6: Accounting for Erosion in the Case Study Model

Unit V.D.1: Sorry to Nag, but Again: Read the ReadMe Tab

Unit V.D.2: Turbine Selection Results; Feeding the Case Study Model

Unit V.D.3: Refresher: our Variance Analysis Lens

Unit V.D.4: Refresher: our Case Variables

Unit V.D.5: Something Nice We *Can't* Do: Nearshore, Now (Case8)

Unit V.D.6: One we can do: Farshore, Now (Case 4)

Unit V.D.7: Case 8 vs 4 - Quantifying the Impact of Chasing the Faster, Farshore Winds

Unit V.D.8: The Impact of a Delay - Farshore, Now vs Later (Case 8 vs Case 2)

Unit V.D.9: The Impact of a Delay - Nearshore, Now vs Later (Case 4 vs Case 6)

Unit V.D.10: Nearshore NPV Impacts of a 3, 2 or 1 Year Delay (Flexing Case 6)

Unit V.D.11: The 6 MW Turbine Options

Unit V.D.12: Same Site, Same Time, Different Turbines (Cases 7 and 8)

Unit V.D.13: Same Site, Different Turbines, continued

Unit V.D.14: Intuition Check - Guess how changing Turbine Capacity impacts NPV (Case 1 vs Case 2)

Unit V.D.15: How'd You Do?

Unit V.D.16: More (Dis)economies of Scale: 6 MW Turbines Farshore (Cases 3 and 5)

Unit V.D.17: Analysis Wrap-up: Where Does This Leave Us?

Unit V.E.1: What is LCOE, how do we Calculate it, Why Should we Care?

Unit V.E.2: Comparing Differently-fuelled Generators

Unit V.E.3: Don't confuse LCOE and "Merit Order" prices

Unit V.E.4: LCOE and Cross-country Comparisons

Unit V.E.5: Discount Rates: Refresher

Unit V.E.6: Our Case Study's Discount Rate in an Industry Context

Unit.V.E.7: Intuiiton Check - LCOE vs Mean Wind Speed

Unit V.F.1: Getting up on Two Wheels With the Case Study Model: Guided, Intuition-Building Guessing Games

Unit V.F.2: Exercise: Fill in the Missing Formulas

Unit V.F.3: Internal Rate of Return - Uses & Quirks (Download Lecture's Excel File)

Unit V.F.4: Using and testing Excel's Function for IRR, the NPV "Breakeven Discount Rate"

Unit V.F.5: What IRR Tells Us

Unit V.F.6: One Net Cashflow Stream, Multiple IRRs

Unit V.F.7: When IRR is Incalculable

Unit V.F.8: Checking the Case Study IRRs

Unit V: Space for Potential Future Resources

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